• Sales will stagnate. Despite high inflation and recession worries, the economy has remained resilient with very low unemployment rates. However, it’s not yet clear if e-commerce spending will bounce back before the end of the year. These factors lead me to believe that Turkey Five sales likely won’t grow significantly over 2021.
• Margins will suffer. I expect advertising costs to continue rising on Amazon, Facebook and Google through the holiday season, likely setting new fourth-quarter records. Those additional costs will eat into retailer margins, reducing profits.
• Discounts will arrive earlier. An inventory glut left over from pandemic supply chain challenges forced many retailers to hold lavish summer sales to free up cash. However, a rumored second Amazon Prime Day in the fall may push many big box retailers to offer their best holiday discounts before the Turkey Five even arrives.

1. Reconsider Marketing Goals
The marketing landscape has changed dramatically over the past two or three years. Marketers can no longer rely on a steady stream of inexpensive PPC traffic to drive sales. Instead, the path to purchase has become much more expensive, complicated, and challenging to track. Consequently, some marketing goals may no longer be relevant or achievable under current conditions. Before marketers begin developing their 2022 holiday strategy, they should examine their marketing goals with fresh eyes and consider adopting an omnichannel approach that judges each channel based on what it does best.

2. Focus on Existing Customers
As new customer acquisition costs continue rising, existing customers will become increasingly valuable. With this in mind, marketers should prioritize building direct channels to their customers (like email) and creating loyalty programs that reward repeat purchases. These efforts will also have significant downstream benefits because marketers that can deploy clean, first-party data into Google see more efficient and effective advertising results.

3. Don’t Follow the Herd
Some marketers can discover significant advantages by working against popular sentiment. For example, Apple’s recent privacy changes have complicated data gathering on Facebook, a platform that has long played a central role in holiday marketing strategies. As a result, many marketers are pulling money from Facebook in favor of platforms that can deliver a more precise return on ad spend. This shift could provide an opportunity for some marketers to invest in Facebook and build their brand in an environment with less competition and lower costs.

4. Try Something Different
Marketers that can approach their holiday strategies with a bit of out-of-the-box thinking will have an advantage this year. Collaborations with strategic partners, like list sharing, co-marketing and product partnerships, can pay big dividends for all brands involved. Influencer partnerships will also play an important role this year, but brands need to act now to get their products into the hands of influencers and in front of consumers well before the holidays.

5. Be Willing to Pivot
While creating a solid strategy is critical, marketers should closely monitor data points like conversion rates, search volume and margins throughout the season for indicators of success and failure. Marketers who are willing and able to quickly pivot away from their existing strategy in the face of changing conditions will have a much better chance of finding success during what is shaping up to be a highly competitive holiday season.